Seasca.....What Do You Really Think?

Yesterday we got the amazing news that Seasca was missing in action presumed dead. Now she may well be but I find myself really very puzzled by it all as the more I think about it the less convinced I am that the evidence shows this.

At the second last update I had no worries whatsoever. A well fed juvenile osprey on her first migration what could go wrong. Well unfortunately lots can often go wrong but there are usually clues as to the reason.

If I had one concern it was that she was losing out in the fish war on the nest. However Mallachie in 2009 was losing out in the fish war and she got to Africa no trouble.

In times like this people are usually only too willing to blame the tracker. I am very reluctant to blame the tracker but in this case it may well be the only explanation.

Firstly it may be delayed data. We know that can and does happen. So on Thursday the missing data may turn up. Not as unlikely as you might think.

So if no data does turn up then it is time to look to other reasons.

In November 2012 Blue 44 was an incredibly well fed bird heading toward Africa when he simply disappeared without trace. Now that seems the closest parallel with the present case. Again not a hint of an explanation why. Was it a tracker problem or did Blue 44 come to catastrophic harm?

 Well that has got this started and see what parallels we can come up with.