Now we all know that if there’s one thing us Brits like to talk about it’s the weather! So just what is going on this year? We’ve seen parts of the UK in drought and other parts in flood.
But what does it all mean for our wildlife? We asked reserve staff up and down the UK what it meant for the wildlife on their reserves. This is what they said:
Total washout
The Ouse Washes in Cambridgeshire should now be a patchwork of grassland and pools.
But Jon Reeves, Site Manager, says that currently it’s looking like ‘a giant inland sea’. Now this is great for the passing terns, but not so good for the breeding waders and ducks. All 600 pairs of breeding waders, and 800 pairs of ducks, have been washed out. Many of the waders are currently looking to relocate, but things are looking tough.
It’s a similar story from just down the road at the Nene Washes. Charlie Kitchin remarks: ‘The year-long drought that so badly affected the 2011 breeding season and meant last winter was dry with few wildfowl came to a dramatic end in April. A flood has all but wiped out the nesting season. Hopefully the birds will have time to nest again if the flood water recedes quickly.’
Wet underfoot
In north-west Wales, nestled next to the River Conwy lies the Conwy reserve itself. ‘We’ve missed the worst of the weather and, although it’s a bit wet underfoot, nothing that’s really affecting wildlife except that we’ve barely seen any butterflies’ Site Manager Julian Hughes comments. He’s also happy that the recent rain will make it easier for thrushes etc to find food, as the soil isn’t as rock hard as it’s been in recent springs.
Wrong kind of rain!
‘It’s the wrong kind of rain!’ says Julian Nash, Site Manager of our North Kent reserves. Although, like the other Julian in Wales, he’s pleased that it’s alleviated the recent drought conditions: ‘The rainfall has really helped maintain conditions for breeding waders at a key time.’ So why’s it the wrong type? ‘Persistent heavy rain can kill off young wader chicks, particularly lapwings, as they can’t keep warm enough. However, so far, we’re not seeing this, so fingers crossed’.
Good for the ducks
A big wetland restoration project was completed last year on our Loch Leven nature reserve, with the aim of improving the site for breeding waders.
Reserve Warden Vicky Turnbull tells us how the weather is affecting their first breeding season with the improved wetland: ‘Our early spring lasted for two whole weeks, and I was very worried the reserve would dry out half way through the breeding season. But then the rain came and it hasn't stopped much since – our wetland's looking great, just how we want it. We did lose one lapwing nest to flooding, but other than that the rain's really helped. We want lots of mud for the waders and their chicks, and the ducks like it too.’
Let us know
Despite all this rain it’s worth remembering that parts of south and East of England are still classified as in a drought. So it’s really important to keep conserving water.
How’s the weather affecting the wildlife in your garden or local reserve? Has the drought dried you out, or the rain turned your garden into a bog? Leave a comment and let us know.
For more on our science, check out the RSPB Centre for Conservation Science web pages.
Hi John,
And anyone else who is interested in Climate Change.
Sceptical?
Yes, very wise to be sceptical. In fact this is an important moral principal in Science. Whatever theory about nature is proffered it is necessary to be sceptical and look to evidence – commonly know as part of the scientific method. Politically, however, sceptical is often proffered as denial of a subject.
Accuracy? 2 weeks hence?
The General Weather Forecasts that I observe have no figures of accuracy. The current Met Office forecast (web), for my area shows on one line: Time: 1300. An icon meaning heavy rain, Temp: 14 deg. Wind: SE, 15mph, Gust 33mph. Visability: Good. No accuracy given, but meaningful. Looking out of the window and also at weather station data about two miles away this all looks good. The latter shows Temp=14.2 deg C.
If I dig a bit deeper I find:
www.metoffice.gov.uk/.../forecasts
Quote: “The early morning forecast on our website is used to produce a percentage number of the times when the forecast is accurate to within +/- 2degC.” “Observed at an agreed list of 45 sites across the UK”. This shows that accuracy is embedded within a confidence level. Such will be the case for the various Physical Quantities.
The weather cannot be predicted by deterministic theory alone. Weather patterns emerge and continually change and we have to resort to empirical theory, just like we deal with fluid flows in general. Weather data is collected and the weather pattern for that time is modelled. A model can be run, now by supercomputer, to determine how such will change and thereby obtain a forecast.
The further into the future we run the models the less the confidence in the result. We consequently read in the current Met Office 3-Month Outlook: “For the summer as a whole (JuneJulyAugust), the forecasts indicate a wide range of possible outcomes for UK average rainfall, with chances of both very wet and very dry conditions near or above climatological levels.” Also: “the jet stream over the North Atlantic may end up a little further south than its climatological position.”
See: www.metoffice.gov.uk/.../A3-plots-precip-JJA.pdf .
There is a good read here dealing with uncertainties, caveats, and puzzling consequences – because that is the competent nature of weather.
In your post you appear to suppose: The spread of Weather Forecast errors for two weeks ahead, extrapolate much the same spread of errors for two weeks ahead for Climatic Change Forecast. If such is the case then Climate Change forecast would be intractable.
However, Climate is roughly the average of weather over a geographical area over a long period of time. 30 years is a common standard. We are dealing with different time scales. The mathematical models that we deal with are primarily based on Dynamical Instability Theory also known as Chaos Theory. A prominent feature of this is “scale invariance” (it looks the same at all magnifications), which for our present discussion means that weather spread of errors for two weeks will be comparable to perhaps decades for the climatic case. (Such will depend on specific model parameters.)
For an historical introduction of Chaos theory, the following is recommended, it is not only good for Climatic Change but Ecology and many other good read subjects:
www.imho.com/.../chaos.html
www.tutorgig.info/.../Scale_invariance
Climate models are always open to uncertainties, although not as intractable as your comments suggest.
See: www.metoffice.gov.uk/.../projections
.and subsequent links.
Earlier in my posts I drew attention to what we can be most certain about and to human involvement in such. How we can change our endeavours and mitigate an ever warming climate that is a huge challenge with considerable uncertainties. We need to work on this.