Yesterday we got the amazing news that Seasca was missing in action presumed dead. Now she may well be but I find myself really very puzzled by it all as the more I think about it the less convinced I am that the evidence shows this.
At the second last update I had no worries whatsoever. A well fed juvenile osprey on her first migration what could go wrong. Well unfortunately lots can often go wrong but there are usually clues as to the reason.
If I had one concern it was that she was losing out in the fish war on the nest. However Mallachie in 2009 was losing out in the fish war and she got to Africa no trouble.
In times like this people are usually only too willing to blame the tracker. I am very reluctant to blame the tracker but in this case it may well be the only explanation.
Firstly it may be delayed data. We know that can and does happen. So on Thursday the missing data may turn up. Not as unlikely as you might think.
So if no data does turn up then it is time to look to other reasons.
In November 2012 Blue 44 was an incredibly well fed bird heading toward Africa when he simply disappeared without trace. Now that seems the closest parallel with the present case. Again not a hint of an explanation why. Was it a tracker problem or did Blue 44 come to catastrophic harm?
Well that has got this started and see what parallels we can come up with.
Tiger Signature
On the other hand... Seasca's journey into oblivion is dwarfed by Deshar's.
IMAGICAT
A few thoughts.
I don't think the shedding of Morven's transmitter is relevant. It was fitted in 2008 and expected to last 3 to 5 years. As 06(01)'s transmitter was expected to last a year it may have been fitted with less robust thread.
Deshar was older than Seasca when he flew over the ocean. He may have been better fed. But what could anyone have done if they had spotted the Seasca had not been getting enough to eat? These are wild birds after all.
Hilary J
HilaryJ said:what could anyone have done if they had spotted the Seasca had not been getting enough to eat?
Doing anything didn't enter my head, HILARY - I just wanted to be able to take everything into account that might have contributed to Seasca's demise. Certainly EJ and Odin couldn't have done any more :-)
I don't think Deshar was well fed, Hilary. I wasn't following LG in 2008, but the blogs reveal that the LG team were concerned that OVS (the LG male that year) was often absent, and not bringing in enough fish. Deshar was the middle chick; the youngest chick died in late June and the eldest, Nethy, seems to have been dominant when it came to getting fish deliveries.
Prior to his long - but fatal - flight over the Atlantic, Deshar had been fending for himself in Kent for several weeks, and I think had been seen with a fish, though there's no way of knowing how successful he had been overall at feeding himself during that time.
noc said: Hello {{{ SCYLLA}}} All EJ and Odin's effort seems worthless now. :'-(
Hello {{{ SCYLLA}}}
All EJ and Odin's effort seems worthless now. :'-(
Oh I do not think you should see it like that at all. You can never tell when luck is about to change.
I always think of the legendary loser 8(97).
Now he was most famous for his inability to find a mate. He finally managed it in 2007 and raised two chicks but the nest failed in 2008.
They raised chicks in 2009 and 2010 but he then disappeared in suspicious circumstances in 2011. At the time it was felt that he had failed as none of his chicks were known to return.
Then in 2012 both Blue 11 and Blue 12 turned up both from his 2010 nest.
Now Blue 12 is Glesni the female at Dyfi and Blue 11 is breeding at Rutland.
So things can change very quickly.
Also this is one of the best discussions I have seen in a while.
HilaryJ said:Deshar was older than Seasca when he flew over the ocean.
Yes Deshar was much older than Seasca when he flew over the ocean. Deshar was 123 days when he started his final dash, Seasca was only about 94 days when she made her last flight.
Deshar had learned to feed himself and had done so for about a month.
scylla said:If Seasca did, basically, die of exhaustion, I wonder if she was as well-nourished as we thought she was. On and off I've been rewatching videos and wondering since well before there was a hint of her being lost.
I was not watching as closely as most of you but I thought that Seasca was losing out in the fish war. I doubt of she managed to get anything to eat in the day or so, maybe more, before she left. I thought that even before she left.
Though I am always loathe to blame the tracker I am still far from convinced she has perished.
ChloeB & Tiger's Osprey Data
Tiger
Another successful Biscay-crosser who you might like to look at is Blue YD (Scottish Wildlife Trust, 2012) He was about 92 days old when he set out on migration, and flew, probably non-stop, all the way from his nest in Angus to the north coast of Spain, taking about 30 hours (12-13 Sept ). It's possible he landed somewhere, maybe in Brittany during the night, but if so, it wasn't recorded, and he can't have stopped for long.
There's no information on how well he had been fed, but he had no experience of fending for himself. As we know, he survived to return to the UK this summer.
ChloeB said: Though I am always loathe to blame the tracker I am still far from convinced she has perished.
I have never known so many experienced watchers be sceptical that a bird has indeed died.