Yesterday we got the amazing news that Seasca was missing in action presumed dead. Now she may well be but I find myself really very puzzled by it all as the more I think about it the less convinced I am that the evidence shows this.
At the second last update I had no worries whatsoever. A well fed juvenile osprey on her first migration what could go wrong. Well unfortunately lots can often go wrong but there are usually clues as to the reason.
If I had one concern it was that she was losing out in the fish war on the nest. However Mallachie in 2009 was losing out in the fish war and she got to Africa no trouble.
In times like this people are usually only too willing to blame the tracker. I am very reluctant to blame the tracker but in this case it may well be the only explanation.
Firstly it may be delayed data. We know that can and does happen. So on Thursday the missing data may turn up. Not as unlikely as you might think.
So if no data does turn up then it is time to look to other reasons.
In November 2012 Blue 44 was an incredibly well fed bird heading toward Africa when he simply disappeared without trace. Now that seems the closest parallel with the present case. Again not a hint of an explanation why. Was it a tracker problem or did Blue 44 come to catastrophic harm?
Well that has got this started and see what parallels we can come up with.
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Unknown said: Tiger Another successful Biscay-crosser who you might like to look at is Blue YD (Scottish Wildlife Trust, 2012) He was about 92 days old when he set out on migration, and flew, probably non-stop, all the way from his nest in Angus to the north coast of Spain, taking about 30 hours (12-13 Sept ). It's possible he landed somewhere, maybe in Brittany during the night, but if so, it wasn't recorded, and he can't have stopped for long. There's no information on how well he had been fed, but he had no experience of fending for himself. As we know, he survived to return to the UK this summer.
Tiger
Another successful Biscay-crosser who you might like to look at is Blue YD (Scottish Wildlife Trust, 2012) He was about 92 days old when he set out on migration, and flew, probably non-stop, all the way from his nest in Angus to the north coast of Spain, taking about 30 hours (12-13 Sept ). It's possible he landed somewhere, maybe in Brittany during the night, but if so, it wasn't recorded, and he can't have stopped for long.
There's no information on how well he had been fed, but he had no experience of fending for himself. As we know, he survived to return to the UK this summer.
Indeed Sue. His tracker also went dead around May 20 2014 and it is felt that he is still alive and well but no actual confirmation of that.
Hazel b said: I have never known so many experienced watchers be sceptical that a bird has indeed died.
I have never known so many experienced watchers be sceptical that a bird has indeed died.
Personally, I am inclined to think that she did, and in the Bay of Biscay.
Transmitters have been made more reliable over the years, and I think a failure this early on would be unusual now.
Though there are some examples of the transmitters coming off (when the bird is known to have survived) this tends to be, as in Morven's case, after several years of wear & tear.
Finally, if the tracker had reached land, there would have been a greater chance of LG getting some kind of continuing signal.
noc said:All EJ and Odin's effort seems worthless now. :'-(
ChloeB & Tiger's Osprey Data
Hazel b said: Though I am always loathe to blame the tracker I am still far from convinced she has perished.
Though I am always loathe to blame the tracker I am still far from convinced she has perished.
[/quote]Not that I am among the experienced but I think that many of us just don't want to believe this awful tragedy has occurred, would rather cling to hope, however faint!!
2013 photos & vids here
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Here is another one who is sceptical of the demise of Seasca. When Ilmari came to grief in the Med there were still fixes being received so why no fixes from Seasca s transmitter the next day. Seasca was flying strongly and other young ospreys have flown far further over the sea without coming to grief. Transmitters seem less reliable lately. The Estlat ones had a couple of failures and yet the ospreys returned, also Lalli s transmitter failed abruptly and Lalli was later seen in Finland. And of course there is BlueYD. All these are sudden unexplained failures which could have happened with Seasca.
Unknown said:Transmitters seem less reliable lately.
I totally agree.
It is a pity that Red 8T wasn't captured and his non functioning transmitter retrieved. Examining that might give us some insight into why trackers fail.
In 2000 T09 had a flight somewhat similar to Seasca
In that case the bird was a sister of none other than good old 8 (97) and 06 (01) (it is only this moment I realised the connection between 06 (01) and 8(97) )
A magnificent looking bird that just fell short of the north Spain coast.I followed that live as it happened and it was a cliffhanger.
A year later U04 seemed about to suffer the same fate as T09 but then remarkably flew on to the Canary Islands.
Unknown said: Transmitters seem less reliable lately. The Estlat ones had a couple of failures and yet the ospreys returned, also Lalli s transmitter failed abruptly and Lalli was later seen in Finland.
Transmitters seem less reliable lately. The Estlat ones had a couple of failures and yet the ospreys returned, also Lalli s transmitter failed abruptly and Lalli was later seen in Finland.
Alan
I think several of the ESTLAT ospreys, and certainly Lalli, had the new type of transmitter which sends data through the mobile phone network, not via a satellite. These have seemed to be less reliable.
Unknown said: When Ilmari came to grief in the Med there were still fixes being received so why no fixes from Seasca s transmitter the next day.
When Ilmari came to grief in the Med there were still fixes being received so why no fixes from Seasca s transmitter the next day.
I don't really understand this. If a transmitter sinks, how can it still transmit the next day? Or is it a matter of whether a dead bird sinks or floats?
Re genes, Seasca reminds me of Alba (the middle chick in a clutch of 3) and Millie of Caledonia. The first two (Seasca and Alba) were fast migrants, while Caledonia and Millie seemed/seem to take it easier. Just a thought.
Tiger's Osprey News
noc said:The first two (Seasca and Alba) were fast migrants, while Caledonia and Millie seemed/seem to take it easier.
A very good point about the speed of migration. The ones that take the leisurely route do seem to do better.
Breagha was a bit relaxed about his migration and had a nice stopover in northern France when he no doubt attended finishing school.
I always point out that Breagha coming from a fourth egg would normally have almost zero chance yet here is is poised to be the first Loch Garten bird to carry a functioning tracker to Africa and back.