Yesterday we got the amazing news that Seasca was missing in action presumed dead. Now she may well be but I find myself really very puzzled by it all as the more I think about it the less convinced I am that the evidence shows this.
At the second last update I had no worries whatsoever. A well fed juvenile osprey on her first migration what could go wrong. Well unfortunately lots can often go wrong but there are usually clues as to the reason.
If I had one concern it was that she was losing out in the fish war on the nest. However Mallachie in 2009 was losing out in the fish war and she got to Africa no trouble.
In times like this people are usually only too willing to blame the tracker. I am very reluctant to blame the tracker but in this case it may well be the only explanation.
Firstly it may be delayed data. We know that can and does happen. So on Thursday the missing data may turn up. Not as unlikely as you might think.
So if no data does turn up then it is time to look to other reasons.
In November 2012 Blue 44 was an incredibly well fed bird heading toward Africa when he simply disappeared without trace. Now that seems the closest parallel with the present case. Again not a hint of an explanation why. Was it a tracker problem or did Blue 44 come to catastrophic harm?
Well that has got this started and see what parallels we can come up with.
Tiger Signature
Unknown said: Who are the other the others apart from YD and 44 Tiger?
Who are the other the others apart from YD and 44 Tiger?
There was Glen who went missing in Ireland in 2008. However he was well off course and the weather was awful.
Tempo is indeed correct about Red 8T and Morven but they were not missing for long.
You could also add Nimrod who had a broken aerial.
You could add that Glen migrated too young. His brother Moray went even more spectacularly off course. He was very underweight when his body was recovered from Rannoch, Isle of Skye and Lewis.
www.roydennis.org/.../other-ospreys
The cases of Glen's sisters in 2007 are also relevant to this discussion.
Thistle was lost at sea. Signals were received showing her drifting.
Heather stopped transmitting in Spain. RD suspected transmitter failure.
Hilary J
Maybe we shall know today ...
Ospreys Rule OK, but Goldfinches come a close second!
Hazel b said: Who are the other the others apart from YD and 44 Tiger?
[/quote]Don't forget 06(01) when looking for comparisons. Have we considered a webbing failure rather than mechanical/electronic?
Unknown said:Don't forget 06(01) when looking for comparisons. Have we considered a webbing failure rather than mechanical/electronic?
Didn't 06 (01) have a battery powered transmitter? So losing a signal from her did not mean the same. Still possibly the only osprey I know of to actually lose the transmitter.
Anyway, today is the day when we get to find out if was possibly a data download delay. I am relatively optimistic that it is a data delay. Recently someone sent me a text and it took three days to arrive.
Apparently data arrives in a somewhat haphazard manner. In 2012 there was a huge saga in tracking Ceulan. One set of data suggested the worst. I said that another set of bad data would indicate the worst. Well the second set of bad data arrived and it did look very bad indeed. Then late in the data some better data arrived showing that Ceulan was alive and well.
Sadly there was to be be no reprieve when more worrying data arrived a month later.
I guess all we can do now is wait and see.
Morning Tiger, I am resigned for the bad news so anything else is a huge bonus which I shall receive very gratefully.
Likewise Lmac. Ceulan is a good example but sadly as Tiger says he was lost some weeks later. Also anxious to hear on Millicent with such bad weather around.
The only bright spot on a dark horizon is that Millies tracking data was missing two days. However at least she recorded on 23rd which sadly Seasca didn't. I guess we may hear in the afternoon.
As long as one does not get the dreaded static signal there is a chance.