Scotland Offshore Wind announcement 2022

Last week was a monumental week for Offshore Wind in Scotland. Much has been reported about the £700 million that will be passed to Scottish Government for public spending and what it might mean in terms of carbon emissions. Neither of these are unwelcome. In fact, in isolation, they are positive. Climate change is a key threat to society and nature, and we support measures, including offshore windfarms in the right place, to help adapt to and lessen its impacts. But we are in a nature and climate emergency and nature has been missing from the story this week.   

Seabird numbers in Scotland have declined by 49% since the mid-1980s. For some species, this decline is even more pronounced. For example, the black-legged kittiwake population is less than half what it was in the mid-1980s. The Artic skua, which typically steals food from guillemots, puffins, and other seabirds, is believed to have fared worse than any other with the population in 2017 less than 20% of what it was in the 1980s.   

Declines are equivalent to having lost 8 out of 10 Arctic skuas. Ian Francis 

Windfarm developments are adding more pressure to this situation. Offshore developments already in operation or under construction are predicted to kill hundreds of seabirds each year. A recent assessment of the in-combination impacts of developments in the Forth and Tay area indicated black-legged kittiwake populations on the Forth islands could see reductions of up to 22% in population size after 50 years, and 15% after 25 years of impact. That is substantial. We dread to think what numbers for these species will look like in five- or ten-years’ time. Planning for our marine environment as we do for our terrestrial environment is crucial if we are to continue to industrialise our seas.  

This time last year we felt we were on the brink of change. Scotland adopted a Sectoral Marine Plan for Offshore Wind and we expressed optimism that Scotland was leading the way with plan-led development of offshore wind. Having a plan with environmental limits acknowledged the problem and to us was a small step in the right direction. The existing, and unacceptable, impacts to our seabirds from offshore wind developments that are already being built or have permission would not disappear, and future cumulative impacts remained a considerable risk. However, overall, we believed progress to have been made.  

So the announcement last Monday by Crown Estate Scotland took us by surprise. We (and many others) were expecting around 2,000 square kilometres of option agreements to be announced as, using the assumptions set out in the Sectoral Marine Plan for Offshore wind, this would equate to around 10GW which was the cap set by Scottish Government to limit environmental harm.  Options agreements secure the rights of the developer to specific areas of the seabed – akin to a lease agreement. It is not the same as consent to build a windfarm, but it is the first step in the process. 

The announcement also appears to be disregarding the plan. It appears that a one-off revenue payment has been maximised at the expense of our seabirds and we are returning to landowner led development. The prospect of multiple, large-scale offshore wind farms with hundreds of turbines installed across Scotland’s waters presents a very real risk. For our seabirds it could be death by a thousand cuts. 

We want to know what happens next. The 17 successful projects between them paid £700 million to Crown Estate Scotland. The projects are different sizes, but we can roughly estimate each developer has paid about £100,000 per square kilometre to secure potential use of the seabed. These projects will expect a return on their investment. We are exceedingly hesitant to believe that around 5000km2 of seabed will not be developed when an options agreement has been secured. 

We have this week been able to share our concerns with the Environment and Rural Affairs Minister Mairi McAllan. It was a helpful meeting, but more is needed. At COP 26, Scottish Government acknowledged that we cannot solve the climate crisis without tackling the nature crisis. Their positive words must be accompanied by details from Scottish Government as to the actions they will be taking to be sure the offshore wind leases announced on Monday are not going to push our seabirds over the edge.  

The significant cumulative damage arising from this hugely ambitious development programme must be addressed strategically, with government setting the expectations and approach. Offshore wind in Scottish waters should not just minimise the number of seabirds killed but provide benefits to seabirds and help restore the marine environment. Only the projects that do this should be able progress. We need reassurance that the Sectoral Plan adopted in 2020 will remain the basis for the expansion of offshore wind in Scotland. We also need a commitment from Scottish Government that further action will be taken to facilitate strategic measures that address the suite of pressures on our seas, not just from offshore wind but from a range of marine users. This is fundamental for all marine users, including those wishing to develop offshore wind farms.  Many restoration actions could be achieved quickly if funding was available. Scottish Ministers should allocate a substantial portion of the initial £700 million raised from the exploitation of Scotland’s natural environment to restoring Scotland’s natural environment and look further investments when these projects are in the water and operating.   

Offshore renewable energy provides a wonderful opportunity to decarbonise and mitigate climate change. However, the risks of this new technology at the scale of Scotwind are considerable and could worsen current catastrophic seabird population declines. With the right planning and clear vision, it is possible to have truly green energy that helps protect our climate and nature. 

Main image - Two wind turbines out at sea.