(c) Andy Hay (rspb-images.com)
In this blog, Senior Policy Officer Marcus Nyman explores some key trends from the 2023 Global Biological Conservation Horizon Scan, looking at what they could mean for the RSPB and how we can be better prepared for the future.
In an increasingly unpredictable world, the environmental sector needs to work with others to look ahead and better understand the drivers of change, including risks or opportunities, that nature and biodiversity will be facing in future.
As the recent past has shown us, change can happen fast and come from unexpected places. In the world of nature conservation, this is maybe even more true given the wide range of social, economic and biophysical processes which influence the future of nature and biodiversity. Being more aware of and more ready for change in a constantly shifting world is a key element of the RSPB’s strategy.
Each year—alongside partners connected to the Cambridge Conservation Initiative (CCI)—the RSPB takes part in a global horizon scan of issues (both positive and negative) impacting the prospects of nature and which are currently not established on our radars. We reflected on last year’s horizon scan here and wanted to take a moment to do so again. Involvement in this exercise—which tends to raise a number of ‘bleeding edge’ topics each year—has three obvious benefits. Firstly, it helps raise a host of potential issues that we, as a leading nature conservation organisation, should be aware of (both in the form of issues that make the final list and those that are not selected). Secondly, it connects us to a range of experts and practitioners from across sectors and countries who bring a vast area of knowledge and insight – understanding change is not something easily done alone. And thirdly, it helps us prompt critical questions and begin to foster an organisational mindset that is on the lookout for signals of change. The exercise is not perfect, nor does it claim to predict the future; it is up to us to make use of its findings and complement these with further knowledge from within and without the RSPB.
The full list of issues included can be found below, while the published article can be accessed here. To give a flavour of some of the varied and challenging issues that make up this year’s scan, we have picked out and discussed five of them below.
Ocean garbage patches
Ocean gyres (or garbage patches) have provide visible evidence of human impact on marine environments through pollution – plastics in particular. While plastic pollution has major negative impacts on marine life, there is increased understanding that these gyres – providing a unique form of habitat and refuge for species – can host high levels of biodiversity. Often large, inaccessible, and understudied, oceanic garbage patches may not align with established ideas of what nature does – or should – look like and poses questions of what we value and protect. From post-industrial brownfields to landfill, human-impacted landscapes are complex but not necessarily incompatible with natural processes and biodiversity values.
Increased demand for chitosan
Chitosan is a natural polymer derived from chitin, found in various crustaceans, fungi and insects. Chitosan has natural antimicrobial and antioxidant properties and is being developed and utilised for a range of potential industrial applications, including water treatment, cosmetics and pharmaceuticals, food packaging and agriculture. Adding certain metals can enhance these properties, while further applications, such as batteries, may be feasible when chitosan is combined with novel ‘nanomaterials’. Although existing sources of chitin are largely from shellfish waste, an uptick in demand for such ‘alternative’ materials – for example in light of bans on single-use plastics – may result in expansion of aquaculture or wild resource exploitation with impacts on local biodiversity.
Genome editing to deal with invasive conifers
Gene editing technologies have become faster and more widely available in recent years. One theorised application is in engineering the sterility of potentially invasive conifer (or other tree) species that are planted for carbon capture or commercial forestry. Seeds of such trees can be difficult to control and have been shown to have major impacts on local ecosystems, so genetic technology could help control this issue at source. While such actions may have positive impacts for biodiversity, the costs of implementing such technologies are relatively unknown, as are the potential impacts on the genetic material of other species if applied without adequate assessment, monitoring and regulation.
Diminished long-term resilience of coastal wetlands to sea level rise
In the UK and globally, coastal wetlands are critical habitats for birds, people and climate but are threatened by a number of factors, including urbanisation and aquaculture. The impact of sea-level rise has been noted but thought to be somewhat mitigated by the capacity of wetlands to accumulate materials and maintain elevations. However, recent short-term studies suggest the rate of accumulation may be slower than thought, thus placing coastal wetlands at more risk of erosion. This has implications for strategies and priorities for protecting, creating and restoring these critical intertidal habitats in light of climate impacts.
Private actors prioritising biodiversity impacts
An increasing number of global and national reporting requirements are challenging companies—including financial institutions—to better track, report and account for their biodiversity impacts and risks. One such example is the Taskforce for Nature-related Financial Disclosures (TFND), which the UK Government has been championing. These can and should push nature and biodiversity closer to the heart of what major companies do. Mandatory disclosure of environmental risk and impact (along with targets, strategies, resources and practical actions and other market-led approaches) should help efforts to curb nature depletion and encourage investment and delivery of practical restoration. This is a critical element of the Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF) adopted in December in Montreal and a key tool for delivering a Nature Positive economy.
Other issues included:
What do we need from you?
Whether an RSPB member, colleague, a business leader, a policy maker or just interested, we are keen to connect to and understand the shifting drivers and trends that will ultimately impact our work. What are we missing? What have you seen that no one else is talking about? How might the issues we are already seeing evolve over time? Get in touch if you have something to share or want to find out more.
Marcus Nyman, Senior Policy Officer (marcus.nyman@rspb.org.uk)
Oona Buttafoco, Policy Assistant (oona.buttafoco@rspb.org.uk)