Mel Coath at COP28 event
The RSPB’s Alex Mackaness and Melanie Coath are halfway through the COP28 in Dubai. Here they pick up from last week’s blog to bring us an update of where things have got to within the negotiations.
Tipping points for change play a critical role in both science and policy. You may have seen the truly alarming report on how close we may be to irreversible tipping points, bringing with them devastating impacts for people and nature. While this is frightening, we can place hope in securing the positive tipping points in policy that have the potential to deliver rapid and exponential progress for biodiversity and the climate.
Positive tipping points
Here at COP28, different negotiations are at different stages in reaching these tipping points. Take the example of Loss and Damage that recognises the needs of those on the front line of climate change impacts. After years of NGO campaigning, and a major political decision last year at COP27, COP28 has secured an early win for loss and damage finance.
On renewable energy too, with rapidly falling costs for wind and solar, many countries are ready to make the transition and last week we saw 117 Parties sign a pledge to triple renewable capacity by 2030, an important step towards including this target in the outcomes concluded here in Dubai.
Is nature there yet?
But what about nature? It really feels like we might just be close to reaching a tipping point for nature's role in climate ambition. With Ministers arriving this week, the next few days will be pivotal for whether nature is adequately represented within COP28’s Global Stocktake - the major review of progress on global climate goals. We’ve already heard incredible pledges from world leaders and momentum in Ministerial events on nature for climate action and countries have spoken eloquently on the floor on the need for joined up nature and climate action. Outside of COP28, the RSPB has been pivotal in beginning to get businesses on board with this agenda. Even just a few years ago this seemed a long way off.
But will we reach that tipping point for nature here at COP28? These words are only partly captured in the latest round of text, and support needs to be fully reflected in final decisions if we’re finally to trigger the much needed momentum for nature in climate action. Currently it hangs in the balance but RSPB will be pushing very hard for this!
A heavier lift
Some areas are critical but there is still some heavy lifting to be done to move towards the point of tipping into a virtuous spiral of action. Of particular importance to RSPB is bioenergy: we need language to ensure that any renewable energy target isn’t highly dependent on large-scale biomass, that safeguards are in place for people and biodiversity and that UNFCCC carbon accounting rules are reformed to stop driving damaging bioenergy deployment. We are working hard with partners to move this important topic up the agenda.
Furthermore, despite unprecedented support from champion countries, civil society and from scientists for an agreement for ‘full phase-out’ of fossil fuels in order to remain within 1.5 degrees of warming, it seems unlikely at this stage at the end of week 1 that all countries will agree to this language. This is a massive challenge. But let’s take a deep breath, link arms, and remember that only two years ago at COP26 in Glasgow was the first reference to fossil fuels in a COP decision at all (and only the need to phase-out ‘unabated coal’). Things are moving, but we’ve not reached a tipping point… yet.
Moving forward
Other crucial strands of negotiations, each one linked to nature, like finance, adaptation and the Mitigation Work Programme are all facing their own challenges. There’s no doubt that civil society has its work cut out in the next few days to push for positive tipping points and maximum ambition from these talks. We’ll be bringing you our final assessment of progress when COP28 concludes next week.