Melanie Coath speaking at COP28 in Dubai (c) Genevieve Stephens, RSPB
In their final report from COP28 at the end of two weeks of intense negotiations Melanie Coath and Alex Mackaness offer reflections on the accomplishments and the hurdles that still lie ahead.
On the one hand COP28 has achieved what three years ago felt impossible: clear signals that all countries need to transition away from fossil fuels, a goal and roadmap for adaptation to climate change, strong acknowledgement of the importance of nature and an agreed fund for Loss and Damage. Yet it’s hard to ignore the fact that conclusions of the talks today ultimately fall short of what is needed to deliver the scale of global action required to address the climate and biodiversity crises.
We should always celebrate the hard-fought wins. Just 24 hours ago as many countries rejected the Presidency’s low ambition text, it seemed like any deal might be impossible. The gulf between those pushing and resisting ambition felt like an impossible divide to cross. Yet here we are with a set of outcomes that mark at least a step forward in the framework to drive global action on climate change on both fossil fuels and nature. Let’s take a deeper dive into what was secured as well as the gaps and risks that remain.
Campaigners at COP28 (c) Undine Fleischman
Fossil fuels
The escalation of the climate emergency means we urgently require a just and rapid elimination of fossil fuels, and the world was looking to this COP to secure global commitments on this. Countries successfully agreed language that calls on countries to contribute to global efforts to “transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems, in a just, orderly and equitable manner, accelerating action in this critical decade, so as to achieve net zero by 2050 in keeping with the science”. This is a significant step forward. However, the language of “fossil fuel phase-out” proved too politically tricky to land although the need for phase-down of unabated coal power was included but is much weaker than campaigners would have wanted.
Underpinning this language is a complex ecosystem of global politics. There are many reasons for the resistance to a full phase-out but two are key. Firstly, some oil producing nations are still reluctant to commit to this language given the dependence of their economies on fossil fuels. Secondly, there was resistance from some developing countries who rightly point out that industrialised nations continue to drag their feet in making finance available to support developing countries to transition away from fossil fuels. Two hundred years of industrialisation by developed countries has caused the problem of climate change, and given us the lifestyles we enjoy in the Global North, so there is no question the Global South deserve financial support in pursuing a fossil-free development path. This is why issues of global equity were a central feature of the talks.
Bioenergy
Sticking with energy, the new text opens the door to substantially scaling up biofuels and bioenergy. Although the agreed language sounds promising: “Accelerating efforts globally towards net zero emission energy systems, utilising zero- and low-carbon fuels well before or by around mid-century”, the area of land required to produce substantial amounts “low-carbon fuels” like biofuels is vast. Whilst there is a commitment to a tripling of renewable energy capacity by 2030, it is vital that this new capacity isn’t heavily dependent on bioenergy. Woody biomass is highly polluting but a loophole in the way the UN rules allow countries to account for emissions from bioenergy mean that it is often mistakenly represented as 'carbon neutral'. With no proposed safeguards for these “zero and low carbon fuels” and renewable energy we could see huge implications for nature, people and climate.
Main plenary hall at COP28 (c) Melanie Coath
Nature
We can celebrate some significant progress on nature, both inside and outside the formal negotiating process. Never before have there been anything like the high level commitments to action from world leaders, Ministers and country representatives – to aligning action on countries climate and biodiversity commitments, to supporting a breakthrough on mangroves, to new momentum for commitments to protect 30% of land by 2030 and new pledges and finance for nature’s conservation.
In the final political text, we warmly welcome clear reference to the Convention on Biological Diversity’s (CBD) Global Biodiversity Framework, agreed last year, and the need for countries to align work under the three Rio Conventions, of which the CBD and UNFCCC are two, alongside the UN Convention on Desertification. It is so critical that the climate and biodiversity Conventions are not working in silos so this was our top ask coming into the talks and was a real win. We also welcomed paragraphs on the importance of protecting and restoring biodiversity, ecosystem integrity and ecosystem-based approaches to adaptation.
We were also pleased to see language that reflected the Glasgow Leaders Declaration to halt and reverse deforestation and forest degradation reflected in the political outcomes giving a stronger mandate to all countries on what had been a voluntary declaration.
However, not everything looks rosy. Language on the action countries are actually required to take was watered down during the negotiations and language inviting countries to preserve and restore oceans and coastal ecosystems includes “ocean-based mitigation action” worryingly opens the door for damaging geoengineering approaches as does language on approaches to forest management and sustainable land use.
A platform for progress?
It is hard to call an outcome to these talks as a success or failure. It is far from what is needed to address the scale of the climate and nature emergency but it still represents a step forward that many thought may not be possible in Dubai. We can say at least that it is a platform for progress but more, much much more, is needed from all levels – UN, national governments, local governments and of course from us as individuals to put us firmly on a path to a zero carbon, nature positive future.