The coming ‘cold rush’

I've handed the reins of my blog over to Mark Avery for most of June. Mark's sharing the successes and challenges of saving nature around the world in the run up to the Rio+20 Earth Summit.

It is unclear when the first person got to the North Pole, but it may well have been Roald Amundsen, 14 years after he beat Scott to the South Pole, as other previous claims of success are now doubted. 

The Arctic is equally deserving of Scott’s description of Antarctica; ‘Great god! This is an awful place…’ but as the planet warms, and the Arctic has warmed twice as quickly as the rest of the world, and with technological advances, the Arctic will become more accessible to development. 

Arctic sea ice has reduced in extent by about 2.7% each decade since 1978 and this will open up the Arctic Ocean to more shipping and to fisheries but there may also be a mixing of marine species between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans which hasn’t occurred in the last 800,000 years and ice-dependent polar bears and seals will suffer from loss of habitat.

Unlike the Antarctic where there is a global convention banning exploitation, the Arctic is up for grabs and it seems more and more likely that there will be a ‘cold rush’ in future to exploit its oil, gas and fish.

Thinking of the Arctic challenges our view of our planet – quite literally. Get a globe and look down at the North Pole and you will see that Canada, the USA and Russia are all near neighbours in this area and the prospect of a ‘gold rush’ style ‘cold rush’ is worrying. Gold rushes have not been polite, orderly or very safe affairs and it is to be hoped that with nuclear powers involved, Arctic exploitation, which seems inevitable, might be managed better.

The Arctic accounts for about 13% of the undiscovered oil, 30% of the undiscovered natural gas, and 20% of the undiscovered natural gas liquids in the world. As oil prices rise these resources may become too tempting to resist, and I suppose, that if they are exploited in the best possible way then they should be tapped.

Scientists are calling for nations to agree a plan for harvesting Arctic fisheries sustainably. The warming of the Arctic Ocean may be good news for the cod, herring and pollock fisheries as all species have increased in numbers in previous short periods of warmer climate. The opening of a new fishing frontier surely calls for our species to show that, given the hard-won experience we have had of exploiting fisheries unsustainably over a long period of time we do much better in this instance. I wonder, will we?

I have to admit to feeling uneasy about Arctic exploitation but maybe I shouldn’t. I think the root of my unease is a concern over whether we will do it well or badly – the best scenario is great, the worst scenario is awful. But another part of my unease is that there are few wildernesses left. We never give up any of the planet and turn it back to wilderness; instead it’s a one way street of development and industrialisation. How do you feel about it?

There are lots of ways you can Step Up for Nature at home here are some green living tips to get you started.

Dr Mark Avery is a former Conservation Director of the RSPB and now is a writer on environmental matters. We’ve asked Mark to write these 20 essays on the run up to the Rio+20 conference.  His views are not necessarily those of the RSPB.  Mark writes a daily blog about UK nature conservation issues.