Wednesday’s lobby of Parliament is an opportunity to ensure the new crop of MPs have climate change high on their list of priorities. The Climate Coalition will be arguing for a fair and binding global climate deal in Paris at the end of the year while also seeking a comprehensive plan of action at home.
The RSPB and our members will be there in force articulating our concern about the impact of climate change on wildlife: science suggests that with every degree rise in global temperatures 10% of species are likely to be committed to extinction.
Earlier this year, Malcolm Ausden and colleagues from the RSPB, BTO and Natural England published an article in British Wildlife about how our birdlife might change over the next few decades as a result of climate change and the implications for conservation. If you have not done so, it is well worth getting hold of a copy (here) and having a read.
Based on modelling work, Malcolm's team looked at which species might be at risk of extinction from Britain over the next few decades and which might establish and re-establish themselves as breeding species .
Unless we buck current trends and curb greenhouse gas emissions, we are on course for a 3 degree rise in global temperatures (from pre-industrial levels) sometime this century. And, this will have huge consequence of our breeding birds. Previous research (here) had suggested that species would on average more 550km north and species would lose up to a fifth of their range. Of course any species’ ability to survive in new climatic conditions is dependent on available suitable habitat.
Malcolm’s team suggest that unless we stabilise the climate, a range of species will highly vulnerable with a high likelihood of being committed to extinction in Britain: upland species such as snow bunting, dotterel; freshwater and coastal species like Salvonian grebe and common scoter; farmland species like turtle dove; woodland species like capercaillie; and seabirds such as Arctic skua. But, we have a great responsibility to provide welcoming habitat for species whose ranges are shifting northwards such as black kite, cattle egret and white stork alongside species that are already trying to establish themselves as British breeding species - such as black-winged stilt, little bittern and glossy ibis.
And the authors point out that other less mobile species such as habitat-specialist butterflies or reptiles might be even more vulnerable.
Yet, this future is not inevitable - we can take action to avoid catastrophic consequences if we...
...deliver a global and national plan to tackle greenhouse gas emissions to reduce the risks to wildlife
...ensure the transition to a low carbon economy takes place in harmony with nature (as I argued in my previous blog)
...take action to help wildlife adapt to a changing climate by investing in more, bigger, better and connected protected areas – deliverable if we were to implement in full the requirements of the EU Birds and Habitats Directive
And that’s why we are delighted that hundreds of thousands of people across Europe are joining the campaign to defend of our laws that defend nature, and why we shall continue to play our part in the civil society campaign to tackle climate change.
I look forward to seeing some of you on Wednesday.
Image credits:
- Chris Gomersall's image of dotterel
- Mike Langman's images of black-winged stilt, little bittern and glossy ibis: the photographer's target species of the future