Land based wildlife seems to be responding more slowly to climate change than both life in the oceans, and agricultural pests and diseases, suggest two papers in Nature Climate Change.
A new synthesis of observed changes in marine biodiversity reports widespread and systematic shifts which show remarkable consistency with the changes to be expected from climate change. Analysis of a range of observations including species distribution, migration, phenology, community composition, abundance, demography and calcification across both taxa and ocean basins, showed that just over 80% were consistent with the expected impacts of climate change.
For those species responding to climate change, the average rates of distribution shifts are consistent with those required to track ocean surface temperature changes. The ‘leading edge’ of marine species distributions is moving toward the poles at an average of 72 kilometres (about 45 miles) per decade. On land, a previous study found that species are moving on average 17 kilometres polewards per decade, and by 11 m in altitude. And this much faster movement in the oceans is occurring even though sea surface temperatures are warming three times slower than land temperatures.
Observations of hundreds of pests and pathogens show that they are moving polewards almost as fast as marine wildlife. The new analysis shows an average poleward shift of almost three kilometres per year since 1960, and with considerable differences in trends among taxonomic groups. Fungi, beetles, true bugs, mites, butterflies and moths showed clear movements to higher latitudes, whereas viruses and nematode worms shifted to lower latitudes. Other groups showed no detectable change. The interactions between climate change, crops and pests are complex and the extent to which climate change plays in this shift is hard to pin down, but it does seem clear that climate change is allowing pests and diseases to survive in areas where previously they could not.
So we need a range of adaptation actions - to help our terrestrial wildlife to move more quickly and keep up with the pace of climate change; to protect our marine life across its shifting ranges; and to respond to increasing pest issues for agriculture. It's clear that adaptation is a complex business, yet fundamental to our ecosystems and the uses and benefits we derive from them.