New Committee on Climate Change report: highly uncertain whether fracking can be compatible with UK's climate ambition

Summary

Today the UK Government has published long-awaited advice from the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) on whether the exploitation of shale gas, is compatible with the UK’s carbon budgets.

The report makes it clear that this compatibility is highly uncertain and only possible if three tests are met to limit emissions from fracking and elsewhere across the economy. Meeting these tests requires, in the CCC’s view, new regulation. But, in their response to the report, the UK Government has today ruled out any new regulation, saying that existing regulation is sufficient to ensure the CCC’s three tests will be met. RSPB considers it important that the UK Government should introduce new regulation in line with the CCC's advice. Crucially, meeting these tests also relies on reductions from other sectors. Right now, the UK is off track to meet its fourth carbon budget, before fracking is even in the picture.

RSPB considers that today’s report underlines our existing position that the UK is not currently fit to frack, and in this instance on climate change grounds. Unless anything significant changes, we do not currently support fracking because of the risks it could pose to our emissions reductions and because we still believe some improvements are required to the wider regulatory regime.

Investing in shale gas infrastructure without the regulatory improvements recommended by the CCC, and with potential uncertainty over its impacts on our ability to meet our carbon budgets, would be unwise. The UK played a pivotal role in the United Nations Paris Agreement last December and the new global ambition that is part of it. Such ambition will require drastic and guaranteed emissions cuts in the next few years.

Instead, the UK should choose to invest in renewable that deliver genuine emissions reductions in harmony with nature, such as those set out in our recent Energy Vision report.

The CCC’s report in depth

Today’s report is about how the production and use of shale gas fits within the UK’s carbon budgets. The carbon budgets are five-yearly targets for reducing our greenhouse gas emissions to tackle climate change, and just last week the UK Government accepted the CCC’s recommendation for the fifth budget, which will require us to reduce our emissions by 57% by 2028-32. We welcomed this renewed commitment from the Government to be a world leader in terms of emissions reductions. This commitment needs to be backed up by technologies and energy choices that deliver those emissions reductions.

Today’s report from the Committee on Climate Change concludes that shale gas cannot be compatible with our carbon budgets ‘unless’ three key tests are met:

• Emissions from the well must be tightly controlled using best available techniques and technologies.
• Emissions from the consumption of gas must be in line with reductions set out in carbon budgets and this means burning of domestic UK shale gas must take place instead of, not in addition to, imported gas.
• Emissions from the production of the gas will need to be offset through reductions elsewhere in the economy.

The CCC says that in order to ensure that these three key tests are met, new regulation will be required from Government. Without such regulation the CCC says that there is a high degree of uncertainty over the emissions impact of the use of shale gas in the UK’s energy system. The role that shale gas can play is also greatly diminished in a scenario where carbon capture and storage (CCS) is not developed and delivered. This looks very unlikely after last year’s cancelling of Government funding for CCS development projects.

The CCC also concludes that the UK’s shale gas industry could have an impact on global emissions. A previous study in the journal Nature found that fracking in the US may have resulted in a small increase in global emissions since coal that was displaced in the US was simply burned elsewhere in the world, leading to a small increase in the global use of fossil fuels.

It looks highly uncertain that shale gas can be delivered in a way that meets these three tests. This uncertainty is increased because the third tests relies on emissions reductions in the rest of the economy. Late last year, the Government reported that the UK is currently off course to meet its fourth carbon budget. So, relying on reductions from other sectors is a very shaky assumption.

Only days ago, we expressed relief at the UK Government’s announcement that any fracking that goes ahead in England and Wales would be banned in protected areas like nature reserves. Safeguards like this are needed to protect the natural environment. However, today’s report shows that it is highly uncertain whether fracking can be compatible with the UK’s climate change commitments. Based on today’s CCC report, and Government’s response to it, RSPB does not currently support fracking.