Today the Government has signalled its preference for a new runway at Heathrow. A vote in Parliament next year will result in a final decision. The RSPB has long had an interest in the issue of airport development, most recently and notably when there was a proposal for an airport in the Thames Estuary, one of the most wildlife rich areas of our islands. We and others campaigned against this idea and it was rejected by the Airports Commission.
The Government’s announcement today is disappointing, even if not the end of the story. The RSPB currently opposes expansion of the UK’s airports. Climate change is one of the greatest threats to wildlife, and aviation is one of the hardest sectors of the economy to decarbonise. While today's emissions from aviation make up around 6% of UK emissions, they would make up about 50% of emissions by 2050 if we meet our carbon reduction targets.
Heathrow Terminal 4 Mario Roberto Duran Ortiz (Mariordo), WikiCommons
However, the Government is pressing ahead without a solid plan for tackling the emissions that a new runway would result in. The Committee on Climate Change has recommended that aviation emissions need to remain at 2005 levels by 2050 – this involves substantially restricting demand for flights. Even without a new runway the Department for Transport predicts that we will overshoot that demand.
Keeping aviation emissions at 2005 levels puts an extra burden on the rest of the economy to cut its emissions, and that’s with the UK aiming for no more than two degrees of global temperature rise. But the Paris Agreement, that the UK has signed up to, aims for 1.5 degrees of temperature rise at most. The Committee on Climate Change says this means emissions cuts will need to be even more ambitious than previously thought.
To meet these targets we will need a solid plan for dealing with the resulting emissions from increased flights. Technological improvements and the use of biofuels might make a small dent in these emissions but there are some big ifs there for small gains.
The international aviation emissions deal done in the last couple of weeks aims to hold emissions at 2020 levels, nowhere near ambitious enough for the UK which should be aiming for 2005 emissions levels or even less to hit 1.5 degrees.
So this leaves Government in a carbon quandary. There are strong voices calling for new runways in order to meet and spur economic growth. Yet analysis by CE Delft for the RSPB a couple of years ago showed that many of the claims about the importance of a new runway for economic growth are overblown. There will now be a long consultation. Expect to hear a great deal about air pollution, noise and climate change.
The official announcement claims that 'The government believes that a new runway at Heathrow can be delivered within the UK’s carbon obligations.' But other than a reference to the ICAO deal, which will not be sufficient, they do not state how they will achieve this. In addition the statement explains that 'The government will make meeting air quality legal requirements a condition of planning approval. Experts have so far indicated that they cannot see how this could be achieved. https://www.gov.uk/government/news/government-decides-on-new-runway-at-heathrow
At a time when the Committee on Climate Change concludes that the UK is already off course on our emissions and it says those targets are not ambitious enough, a huge new piece of carbon infrastructure is a wrong turn that would put the climate and wildlife at greater risk.
Carbon reduction target
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