As delegates head to Warsaw for the United Nations climate talks, the World Meteorological Organisation announces that greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are continuing an upward and accelerating trend, which is driving climate change and will shape the future of our planet for hundreds and thousands of years.
Concentrations of CO2, the most important greenhouse gas, in the global atmosphere reached 393.1 parts per million (ppm) in 2012, increasing by 2.2 ppm from 2011 to 2012. This is above the average increase of 2.02 ppm for the past 10 years and our atmosphere now has 41% more CO2 than the pre-industrial level of 278 ppm.
This above average increase in atmospheric concentration is interesting because the reported rate of increase in CO2 emissions slowed by about half last year. With previous years’ emissions increasing faster than rising atmospheric concentration, it’s been suggested that more CO2 is probably being absorbed in the oceans; it will be interesting to see how the two trends develop over the next few years.
In parts of the world, the seasonal fluctuation of CO2 breached the symbolic 400 ppm level for the first time. The global average seems set to reach this milestone in 2015 or 2016.
Concentrations of the two other main anthropogenically driven greenhouse gases, nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane (CH4), also increased last year. Combining the climate impact of these with that of CO2, gives a CO2 equivalent of level 475.6 ppm.
Carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide: atmospheric concentrations. WMO
Towards global agreement
This UN climate convention meeting sees the beginning of detailed negotiations on the new global treaty on climate change, which is to be agreed in Paris at the end of 2015 and to come into effect after 2020. So there’s much at stake. We’ve already been involved with pre-meetings between NGOs and both DECC and the European Commission’s DG Climate Action, along with business interests, in London.
We’re hoping that national leaders will commit, at a UN summit in New York in September next year, to provisional emission reduction targets for 2030. These targets should then be reviewed and revised, with regard to staying below 2°C average global temperature rise, in time for the final agreement at the end of 2015.
For the EU, this is a challenging timetable, not least because the EU emission reduction target is linked to questions about having mandatory renewable energy and energy efficiency targets for 2030 agreed at the same time. There is little agreement on these at present, with various countries wanting different options. DG CLIMA has a very tight timetable to agree all this, particularly with EU Parliament elections in May and a new Commission starting in November 2014. So the best option may be for the process to just focus on an emissions reduction target, leaving the other targets to be discussed and hopefully agreed later – we do still want targets for all three areas.
Most EU states have not yet proposed emission reduction targets. Several of the big players are coming out with targets of 40% emissions reduction by 2030, or more, yet with details and caveats very much to be sorted; others have yet to show their hand.
Internationally, it is not clear whether the EU will be able to lead the way. The least developed countries and Alliance of Small Island States are thinking along similar lines, and represent the majority of nations, probably along with Brazil and South Africa. China and India have not expressed positions although China’s minister, Xie Zhenhua, has said that China would be ‘flexible’. The USA is not keen on a review of targets, and is hidebound in setting ambitious targets by its inability to pass climate legislation at home. Amidst the political turmoil on this, President Obama does seem to be in favour of the New York UN summit and is trying to be green, so we shall see ...
So with the science and the politics at critical stages, Warsaw is set to be interesting summit. We’ll keep you posted.