Guest post by Tom Hooper, Head of Marine Policy here at the RSPB.
Yesterday, 28 November, was a fairly typical day for our times. We continued to wrestle with issues of energy prices, house prices and immigration. Also published yesterday was the latest report on how climate change is impacting the seas around the UK. The slow, out-of-sight changes taking place in our seas somehow seem unimportant and insignificant in comparison; but I strongly believe that these impacts are going to have an increasingly significant bearing on our marine wildlife and wellbeing in the coming decades.
The report is produced by a partnership that brings together scientists, governments and conservation organisations like the RSPB. These organisations have looked at more than 30 different marine and coastal topics from the extent of sea ice to changes in sea level. As the timescale of this research extends, scientists are able to have greater confidence in picking out the difference between long-term trends and short-term variability. For example in the last decade, the average UK sea surface temperature was lower in 2008-2012 than it was in 2003-2007; but the projection remains that coastal waters will increase by 2.5°C by 2080.
Scientists are naturally cautious people – they are trained and expected to make conclusions based on what the data is telling them. Scientists routinely challenge each other, and this ‘peer review’ system is what makes the system more robust. This report explicitly builds in how confidence in the conclusions can both increase and decrease depending on the level of certainty and agreement.
Our oceans are a vast and complex system of physical, chemical and biological processes. I doubt if it will ever be possible to clearly identify the smoking gun from amidst these vast interactions, but what speaks loudest to me is the combination of so many different trends which are pointing to changes that are already having a significant impact on marine wildlife around the UK.
For the first time the report looks at the changes in Arctic sea-ice, and provides (with a medium level of confidence) that the average monthly extent has declined at a rate of 4% per decade since 1979 and that the last seven years have seen the lowest sea-ice extents recorded. Most models are now predicting the Arctic to be ice free in each late summer by the 2030s.
Climate change impacts can be seen in changes in the distribution and abundance of species, and the northwards progression of some species has been documented in the report. There is also increasing evidence that overwintering distributions of waders and waterfowl have shifted north and eastwards out of the UK.
Politically and individually we are notoriously bad at taking practical actions to prepare for the future. These predictions seem far away and unimportant, but the potential implications to our wildlife and wellbeing are enormous. Most of us are used to dealing with risk and uncertainty in our lives. We pay for insurance in the event that our house may burn down. We know it is unlikely, but on the basis that the impact will be catastrophic, we are content to make the sacrifice now. This latest report on marine climate change impacts is a reminder that we should take the same attitude when it comes to taking active steps to mitigate and prepare for the future.
What steps do you think we should be taking to mitigate against climate change? Is it solely something for Government or do we all have a part to play?