Aviation, fracking, bioenergy: three sectors that could break the UK carbon budgets

By Ananya Mukherjee and Matt Williams

Our colleagues Olly Watts and Melanie Coath recently wrote about the Committee on Climate Change’s (CCC) latest progress reports. These annual reports set out the Committee’s assessment of how the UK is doing in tackling emissions and preparing for the impacts of climate change.

This blog focuses on three specific areas covered in the reports: fracking, aviation and bioenergy. At first appearance there might not seem to be much that unites these topics. But the Committee on Climate Change report found that new policies will be needed to ensure that these three sectors do not break the UK’s carbon budgets.

One runway too far: why aviation could break the carbon budgets

In its new report the Committee highlights that a new strategy is needed for limiting aviation emissions to 2005 levels by 2050 (implying at most a 60% increase in demand). Buried in the report is a repeat of a warning the Committee has previously made: that if emissions from aviation exceed these levels – which would be caused by the construction of a new runway at Heathrow – then other sectors of the economy would have to bear even more of the brunt of emissions cuts. The CCC has previously warned that expecting other sectors to do even more is asking a lot, to say the least. The recently agreed international plan on aviation emissions does not go far enough, only requiring voluntary efforts to hold emissions at 2020 levels.

The Committee has previously written to the UK Government asking it to produce a plan for limiting aviation emissions, which would be critical in light of the plans to develop a new runway at Heathrow. The Committee is still waiting, although in recent days the UK Government has published a consultation on a new aviation strategy (although the draft document suggests the UK Government will continue to pass the buck to international negotiations rather than dealing with the problem at home). The RSPB’s own calculations showed that in order to limit flights to sustainable levels could cost up to £600 per tonne of CO2.

Fracking for oil and gas: a shaky foundation for the carbon budgets

Like aviation, the CCC is concerned that fracking could pose a threat to the UK’s ability to meet its carbon budgets. The Committee’s report concludes that new policy will be needed to deal with the emissions from fracking for shale gas. For example, the Committee has advocated a robust monitoring protocol to limit the impact of so-called ‘super-emitters’ (large and unnoticed or unchecked leaks of methane). In a report from 2016, the Committee warned that under current regulation, fracking for shale gas is not compatible with the UK’s carbon budgets.

Bioenergy: high carbon, not zero emissions

Bioenergy is automatically classified as zero carbon when it is used in the energy sector. The incorrect assumption is that the emissions will be properly accounted for in the land use sector. But flawed emissions accounting rules mean they are not.

Whereas many people perceive bioenergy generally to be low or even zero carbon, many types are in fact high-carbon, some of them even higher carbon than the fossil fuels that are replaced. For example, the use of whole trees to generate electricity can result in emissions several times greater than those of coal. So the fact that the emissions accounting rules don’t work properly really matters, because millions of tonnes of emissions could be going missing, completely unaccounted for (as the recent report published by Chatham House concluded).

We’re increasingly treated to newspaper headlines about the UK’s declining coal use, but conversion to biomass means that we may be replacing one high carbon fuel with another. While bioenergy’s negative effect on the climate is all too real it’s being brushed under the carpet. This further jeopardises the UK’s genuine progress in meeting its carbon budgets.

The Committee highlights the need to focus on sustainable bioenergy. It also calls for a review of the UK Government’s 2012 Bioenergy Strategy, which could help to address the policies driving the use of high-carbon biomass.

The sectors that could break the budgets

The UK has made good progress to date in cutting emissions, in large part through low hanging fruit like the closure of coal plants. But we are already off course for meeting our fourth and fifth carbon budgets, unless new policies are introduced. In this recent report, the Committee on Climate Change underlines three sectors that could make it even harder for the UK to meet future targets, placing even more pressure on other parts of the economy.

The UK’s imminent exit from the EU could leave us outside of EU law on climate and energy for the period after 2020. Therefore, an ambitious Clean Growth Plan will need to set out how the Government plans to get us back on track for meeting the fourth and fifth carbon budgets. But this Plan will not be enough on its own, and new policies or strategies are needed to deal with the significant emissions risks from bioenergy, aviation and fracking.