An end to fossil fuel vehicles in the UK by 2040: a policy heading in the right direction, but is it at the right speed?

Yesterday we heard the welcome news that the Government intends to end the sale of petrol and diesel vehicles in the UK. Make no mistake, the end of sales of fossil fuel vehicles is a good thing. But the plans have received short shrift from groups concerned about air pollution.

What does the announcement mean for the climate, and for nature, though? The news came hot on the heels of a similar announcement by the French Government only a couple of weeks ago. It also follows recent news that Volvo is planning to stop production of fossil-fuel only cars and that the Government also wants to see a big increase in charging infrastructure.

In a blog last week, my colleague shared her personal experience of buying an electric vehicle. They pointed out that one of the main barriers to this technology is the current diesel and petrol technology which dominates the market. An announcement that petrol and diesel vehicles will no longer be sold certainly sends a signal of market certainty: the future direction of vehicle transport in the UK is electric.

An electric future, not a biofuel one

This target could help to steer us away from the false solution of bad biofuels. Across the EU, including in this country, biofuels made from crops and other materials have been blended into our fuel to meet targets for renewable transport. The UK Government recently consulted on the future of support for biofuels after 2020, and the EU is also currently considering what support or limits there should be on these fuels after 2020.

But we know that many types of biofuel can harm wildlife and be bad for the climate, often even worse than the fossil fuels they replace. For example, the use of palm oil, a growing contributor to Europe’s biofuel mix, is damaging the wildlife-rich rainforests of Indonesia and causing huge releases of greenhouse gases too.

2040: are we nearly there yet?

On the journey to an all-electric vehicle future, 2040 is not the first and best destination for reducing emissions.  Globally, if we’re to have a chance of limiting temperature rises to 1.5 degrees by 2050 (as the UK and many other countries have committed to try to do) then some analysis suggests that fossil fuel cars everywhere need to stop being sold by 2035. As Steve Cornelius of WWF pointed out on twitter yesterday, for a developed country like the UK that’s a big emitter per capita, this probably means aiming for something around 2030, a whole ten years sooner than the Government’s intention.

Electric cars: only as green as the power they use

The UK’s power grid has become a lot cleaner in recent years, in part thanks to the low-hanging fruit of significant declines in coal use. But the Committee on Climate Change has made it clear that new policies are needed in order for there to be certainty for renewable energy after 2020. Electric cars are only as good at reducing emissions as the energy they are charged with. So, decarbonising the UK’s power grid and joining this up with an electric vehicle strategy must be priorities for the forthcoming Clean Growth Plan and Industrial Strategy.

Lots of articles in recent days have stirred up fear about the extra strain such a surge in electric car use could put on the UK’s power grid. But a useful Carbon Brief article debunks many of these claims, pointing out that shared vehicles and smart charging can seriously mitigate the impact. National Grid, who are responsible for balancing our whole energy system and are constantly working to adapt the power grid to be fit for the future, also consider that a scenario where all cars are plug-in electric vehicles by 2050 (their 2 degrees scenario) is achievable. It is true that if the UK stuck its heels in and refused to adapt the grid and our interactions with it then electric cars would pose a challenge. However, with positive announcements this week from Government and Ofgem on measures to help the UK upgrade to a smarter and more flexible future energy system, it’s clear action is getting underway to break down the barriers to an electric future.

This news certainly sets the UK’s transport sector on a good course, but more urgency is needed if we really want to get to grips with air pollution and carbon emissions.. Now we need to see the fine-grain policy detail, such as completely phasing out land-based biofuels by 2030 at the latest, avoiding their impacts and creating space for electric vehicles to lead the way.