Storms, surges and the sea: Coastal Habitats 2100
The RSPB was well represented at a fascinating meeting about what the stormy weather brought to wildlife habitats along the eastern England coast. That’s not surprising given that some of our best known nature reserves are in this area – particularly Minsmere in Suffolk, Titchwell in Norfolk.
We heard that wave heights varied from around 4 metres at Blakeney in the north, to 1.5 m at Sizewell in the east, giving the Norfolk coast considerable more of a battering. Our recent coastal realignment work at Titchwell basically did its job, which is good news. Other sites were not so lucky and the damage range across loss of sand dunes, salt water inundating freshwater wetlands, loss of hides and other infrastructure, and erosion of cliffs.
The east coast battering was described as a one-in-fifty year event – and one gentleman recalled memories the 1953 floods as being worse, because they were exacerbated by much higher winds. With climate change, we may expect these events to become increasingly frequent. The pathway of climate change, and associated events, is on a trajectory, but a saw toothed one, and with fairly deep notches. To protect our coasts we should look at the trend in worst case events, and prepare for those – so I found the talk of medium scenarios, and the event’s title timeframe, Coastal Habitats 2100, providing a bit too much cotton-wool comfort.
Big questions remain about the frequency and magnitude of these type of events. With greenhouse emissions continuing at a 3% annual global rise since the millennium, we know we’re adding to the climate problem significantly, and so current climate trends will continue for 30 years at minimum. The IPCC’s report last September showed an increase in the rate of sea level rise, and possibly but we don’t know yet exactly how much this will bring forward the currently expected flooding and incursion projections. Will events expected in the 2040s now be with us in the 2030s? Or even earlier? We just don’t know yet, and we need to find this out,
There was also lots of discussion about ‘protecting’ our coasts. Is ‘protect’ the right word? Probably not, in many cases. The character of the east coast has always change – dunes move and even disappear, cliffs erode, and some areas accrete material, with new formations of sand and shingle. Wildlife too has its own dynamism amidst and additional to coastal change. As one delegate commented, the coast, and the changing climate, will control what happens as much as us. So how do we ride this underlying current of change, and still make the best of our coast for wildlife and for people?
There many reports of changing attitudes, more acceptance of at least some change, and developing from hard and fast line and defence. Perhaps helped by the knowledge of the subsequent Somerset floods, more people are now realising that making space for water often makes good sense. People in Norfolk could see flood water escape into newly made realignment areas, taking the worst away from settlements and infrastructure.
So the language of protectionism, of damage and repair, looks to be giving way to more realistic responses, that seek to understand and encompass change, and look to more natural and extensive solutions and ways forward. Finding the right way forward, balancing interests against this context of change, will be a challenge. The Coastal Habitats 2100 workshop showed there is lot of interest in new ways to meet this.