Alongside our nature reserves and species recovery work, the RSPB has a major landscape scale programme, working with other land interests in more than three dozen large areas of the UK – covering over a million hectares.
This programme is called Futurescapes – so it’s apt that I’ve just been to a meeting for our Trent and Tame River Valleys Futurescape exploring how climate change will affect the area and what we should do about it.
The meeting brought together a range of partners and we worked through the eight-step adaptation assessment process that we’ve developed at the RSPB. So it was interesting for me to see how this worked in action. Carl Cornish, our conservation lead for the area, ably demonstrated that with a little preparation, non-climate specialists can get to grips with climate change, run a workshop, and start to embed climate adaptation into their work.
Our group, which included people from RSPB reserves, Nature after Minerals, Trent Rivers Trust, Environment Agency and Natural England, explored how the climate will change in an area; assessed both the direct and indirect impacts of changes on the conservation objectives; prioritised threats and opportunities; and developed strategies and actions for adaptation. It was great to see on-the-ground staff running things really well and exploring the issues in the detail relevant to an area of conservation interest – absolutely what’s needed, taking the issues from the climate specialists into the realm of practical nature conservation delivery.
Photo: Carl Cornish RSPB
How will the climate change?
There was some surprise at the level of projected climate change, even for a 2°C world. The broad pattern shows warmer and wetter winters, drier and hotter summers and with an increased likelihood of extreme events – including the likelihood wetter as well as drier summers. That makes adaption less than straightforward, but cannot be ignored, as recent floods have warned us.
What does this mean for wildlife?
Wildlife is vulnerable to change, especially unpredictable, extreme events - yet there will be winners as well as losers. Water availability will become an issue for wetland sites, with too little at some critical periods and conversely too much at other critical periods. Drier summers will be bad news for breeding waders that need wet areas and soft ground, and extreme events like heavy downpours of rain in spring could wash out ground nests. How water is managed in the river valleys will be key to the developing adaptation plan.
Changing temperatures will shift the distribution ranges of some species. We are already seeing northward expansion of species’ breeding ranges, with little egrets breeding in the Trent Valley for the first confirmed time last year.
What can we do?
The group endorsed that being prepared needs an adaptation plan that builds resilience and plans for change for key habitats in the area. Having a landscape-scale approach to conservation really helps this – habitat areas can be better, bigger and part of a network. And working with partners over a large area not only helps deliver the best bits of this Futurescape for nature and societal benefit, but also helps other countryside interests understand nature’s needs, and so develop their adaptation to contribute to the wider picture as well as to their own needs.
The workshop completed five of the eight steps for an adaptation plan. Carl is now busy writing up the notes into a draft a plan, agreeing it with partners, and starting to implement its recommendations.
I’ll look forward to a return visit to see how things develop. And if you’re interested in our adaptation assessment process, please do get in touch.