The wildlife that we love is at risk from climate change: a million species on the path towards extinction by 2050; the end of polar bears by the 2080s; the collapse of seabird populations. There are some climate change winners, but scientists predict that the overwhelming effect of climate change upon biodiversity will be damaging (for a comprehensive summary of impacts on wildlife, see the fifth IPCC assessment report here).
My most important reference document for impacts on birds is the Climatic Atlas of European Breeding Birds which we published a few years ago in collaboration with Cambridge and Durham universities. Its conclusions were that at 3º C average global temperature rise, the potential future range of the average species is predicted to shift nearly 340 miles (550 km) north-east. For some species, the potential future range does not overlap with the current range at all, and there's an average overlap of current and potential future range of only 40 per cent across all species. The average potential future distribution shrinks by 20 per cent.
However, we are increasingly being reminded that the impacts of climate change are not just for the future. And I am not just talking about extreme weather events. We're already picking up a wide range of signals across the natural world that change is already with us: spring is coming around 11 days earlier than 30 years ago. We've seen appalling breeding failures in some seabirds, due to food shortages caused by the changing ecology of warmer UK seas. We're seeing early examples of range shifts, with the spread of little egrets and Dartford warblers helped by warmer average temperatures in southern England and protected areas providing welcome mats for climate colonisers such as great white egret.
The serious threat climate change poses wildlife is why the RSPB is a proud member of the Climate Coalition and has enjoyed being part of the For the love of campaign for the last year or so.
Well, For the love of returns this week with Show the love (#showthelove). All this week, the RSPB along with over 100 other organisations that comprise the Climate Coalition are asking you to celebrate what you love and want to see saved from climate change this Valentine’s Day. The theme of the week is green hearts.
An online tool will let you send your green heart to someone, filled with a photo of the thing you love and want to see saved from climate change. There are also instructions on how to make your own origami green heart that you can wear on your sleeve to show your love for the climate.
And later this week you should be keeping your eyes peeled for a breath-taking, star-studded film. Sign up here to be one of the first to see it.
The aim, of course, is to show that we want to prevent climate change impacting on wildlife and people. And these spring activities are designed to demonstrate the breadth of public support for action to tackle climate change. This helps to send a message to politicians. And, after the General Election, you will be able to join us, on 17 June, at the biggest ever climate lobby of the UK parliament. For more information about that event, please email my colleague kimberley.matthews@rspb.org.uk.
In the meantime, I encourage you to get stuck in this week, make an origami heart, send an e-card using the online tool and take some selfies and photos and tweet them using #showthelove. I’ve already been having a go and have been sharing the love to my colleagues on the RSPB's Board.
I look forward to seeing lots of green hearts this week.
Go on, show the love...
Photo credits...
...kittiwakes by Andy Hay, rspb-images.com
...me